A new method for assessing the impacts and risks of potential future tree and plant pest and disease outbreaks has been developed by Professor Robert Fraser, of the School of Economics, as one of the key recommendations of today’s (20 May) government report into biosecurity.

Professor Fraser developed the new methodology as one of ten experts from leading
universities sitting on the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (Defra) Tree
Health and Plant Biosecurity Expert Taskforce.

The Taskforce’s final report includes a recommendation to develop a ‘prioritised UK Plant Health Risk Register’ – which suggests use of a new ‘horizon-scanning’ methodology developed by Professor Fraser – as one of its key findings.

Professor Fraser said: ‘My role on the Taskforce was very much one of looking ahead and finding a way of assessing impacts and prioritising the risks of future pest and disease outbreaks.

‘One of the Taskforce’s major objectives, as well as looking at ways the UK could strengthen its responsiveness and preparedness, was to find a way of assessing future economic, social and environmental impacts.

‘That way, we can more effectively plan how to prioritise our spending to tackle future tree and plant pest and disease outbreaks.’

The Taskforce was chaired by Professor Christopher Gilligan of the University of Cambridge, and reported to Professor Ian Boyd, Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser. It was established following the incursion of the Chalara pathogen into the UK from the European continent, which killed many ash trees.

Robert Fraser is Professor of Agricultural Economics within the University of Kent’s School of Economics.

Read the Taskforce’s Final Report here.

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Professor Roger Vickerman, a leading specialist in transport economics at the School of Economics, says the debate over Mayor of London Boris Johnson’s proposal for a new hub
airport in the Thames Estuary will continue to ‘cast a blight over north Kent’, despite its rejection
in a new MP’s report.

The House of Commons Transport Committee warned that any new estuary hub airport would
entail ‘huge public expense’ and would also require the closure of Heathrow.

Professor Vickerman said: ‘I agree fully with the report’s findings that there is a need for additional runway capacity, that the urgent priority is for this to be part of a hub-airport strategy, and that the government’s current timetable for taking a decision is too protracted for the scale of the problem.

‘The most controversial aspect of the report is its clear recommendation for the expansion of Heathrow and its rejection of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary. The main concern is that the report makes a clear case for a third runway at Heathrow, but if Heathrow is really to work in the long-term it needs a thorough re-modelling into a four-runway airport.

‘This would take much longer to achieve and it is on these grounds that the appeal for a completely new airport rests. The Committee has helped to narrow the realistic choices faced by the Airports Commission, but I suspect the Heathrow versus Thames Estuary argument will continue to rage – and cast a blight over large parts of north Kent – for some time to come.

Professor Vickerman is Professor of European Economics at the University of Kent’s School of Economics and Director of its Centre for European, Regional and Transport Economics. He is also Dean of its Brussels School of International Studies.