Saturday 10th September

9.30-11.00       SESSION 3

(3.1)     EU referendum I

Geoff Evans and Chris Prosser
Was it always a done deal?  Estimating the impact of expectations and leaders on the decision to leave or stay

Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whiteley
What Explains the Referendum Vote on UK Membership of the European Union? A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Liam Delaney, Ailsa Henderson and Robert Liñeira
Risk and the Brexit Choice

(3.2)     Turnout

Frederico Ferreira da Silva
Fostering turnout? Assessing leaders’ capacity to mobilise voters

Kaat Smets
Competing or Complementary? Local and National Competitiveness as Explanatory Factors of Turnout in SMP Systems

Patrick Kuhn and Nick Vivyan
Reducing Turnout Misreporting by Addressing Psychological Threat

(3.3)     Responsiveness to public opinion I: party policies and issues

Chitralekha Basu
Choosing Your Battles Wisely? Activist Preferences, Party Size and Issue Selection

Fraser McMillan
Do political party issue emphases anticipate changes in government expenditure? Reassessing the saliency approach to democratic linkage

Magdalena Staniek and Carolina Plescia
In the Eye of the Beholder: Voter Perceptions of Parties’ Policy Shifts

Michael Turner and Clive McDonnell
Using Tricked Regression to Re-Estimate Issue Salience in the United Kingdom

(3.4)     Party competition

Anne-Kristin Kölln
When size matters: party size and ideological cohesion in Europe

Mads Thau
Who represents whom? How parties’ changing group appeals influence class-party linkage and the class basis of electoral choice

Tarik Abou-Chadi and Markus Wagner
Party strategies in post-industrial societies

Philipp Dreyer
Ideological Congruence, Voter Polarisation and Electoral Participation


11.00-11.30     Coffee/tea


11.30-13.00     SESSION 4

(4.1)     Elections and party politics in the devolved systems

Roger Scully
More Welsh than British? Voter Choice in the 2016 Welsh Elections

Ailsa Henderson, Chris Carman, Rob Johns and James Mitchell
Identity, valence issues and constitutional preference: the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections

John Coakley, John Garry, Neil Matthews and Brendan O’Leary
Party Images in Northern Ireland: What do citizens think their parties stand for?

Sofia Collignon
A closer look to the effect of decentralization in the stability of party systems: Analysing parties’ sub-national electoral trajectories

(4.2)     Party membership, supporters and organisation

Chair: Alistair Clark (Newcastle)

Tim Bale, Paul Webb, Monica Poletti
Apples and Oranges? Labour’s members before and after Corbyn

Lynn Bennie, James Mitchell and Rob Johns
The Rise of Party Membership in the Wake of Referendum: A New Generation of Members?

Neema Begum and Paula Surridge
Partisan Dealignment and Ethnic Minorities in Britain

Patricia Correa Vila and Nicole Bolleyer
Parties and Associations in the UK and Norway: Consequences of State Funding and Regulation in Constraining and Permissive Legal Settings

(4.3)       Voting for fringe and radical parties II: comparative perspectives

Todd Donovan
Right-Wing Populism in the US Compared

Roland Kappe
Media attention, party positioning and public support for right-wing populist parties: The emergence of the “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD) party in Germany

Matthew Goodwin and Eric Kaufmann
Does Diversity Produce Hostility? A Meta Analysis

(4.4)     Responsiveness to public opinion II

Paolo Bellucci and Alessandro Pellegata
Performance, policy preferences and government ideology in Italy, 1968-2015

John Bartle
Policy representation in the UK, 1945-2015

Rebecca McKee
Is there discrimination in the responsiveness of Members of Parliament to their constituents? Yes: Evidence from a campaign experiment in the UK

Stan Hok-Wui Wong, Harold Clarke and Karl Ho
The Political is Personal: Machine Politics in Hong Kong’s District Council Election


13.00-14.00     Lunch (Dolce Vita, Keynes College)


14.00-15.30     SESSION 5

(5.1)     EU referendum II

Kelvyn Jones, David Manley and Ron Johnston
Forecasting the geography of Brexit: success or failure?

Michael Thrasher, Galina Borisyuk, Colin Rallings, Harry Carr and Michael Turner
Estimating local authority level distributions of referendum voting using aggregate and survey-level data

David Morisi
Choosing the risky option: Campaign arguments and risk propensity in the EU referendum and the Scottish independence referendum.

(5.2)   Electoral rules and electoral behaviour

Martin Elff, Spyros Kosmidis and Andrea Murr
Campaign Dynamics and Mixed Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of the UK Parliamentary Elections of 2010 and 2015

Jack Vowles and Shaun Bowler
The New Zealand Party System and Electoral System Change: Testing Duverger’s Psychological Effect

(5.3)     The Post-Crisis Irish Voter: Insights from the 2016 Irish National Election Study

Michael Marsh
The missing economic vote in the Irish 2016 election

Gail McElroy
Gender and the Vote

Kevin Cunningham
Mining the Ballot, Preferences and Transfers

Theresa Reidy and Jane Suiter
Campaign Dynamics; the air war and the ground war

(5.4)    Candidate effects in the 2015 British general election

Caitlin Milazzo and Jennifer vanHeerde-Hudson
Competition and Candidate Extremity

Peter Allen, Rosie Campbell, Jennifer Hudson and Chrysa Lamprinakou
The attitudinal and behavioural characteristics of ‘super-candidates’

Jennifer Hudson, Wolfgang Rudig and Javier Sajuria
The advantage of the local candidate?

(5.5)     Public opinion towards minority groups, immigrants and terrorism

Linda Urselmans
Testing public response to migrants and migration: An agent-based approach

Jonathan Mellon
Experimentally Testing the Effect of Economic Threat on Anti-Immigrant Sentiment

Patrick English, Manlio Cinalli and Steven Van Hauwaert
The Limits of Desire: Policy Making and Public Opinion toward the Integration of Muslims in the United Kingdom and France

Maria Sobolewska, Rob Ford, Paul Sniderman
Democratic Resilience: How some individuals resist the threat of terrorism and maintain their core values of tolerance


15.30-16.00     Coffee/tea


16.00-17.30     SESSION 6

(6.1)     EU referendum III

Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick
Public opinion change in referendum campaigns: how did the UK EU referendum compare?

Ece Atikcan, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger
Framing the Choice in the Brexit Referendum

Sara Hobolt, Thomas Leeper and James Tilley
Social Identity Cues and Policy Preferences: An experimental study of the British referendum on EU membership

(6.2)     Political representation

Rosie Campbell, Sarah Childs & Joni Lovenduski
Gender and elite/mass attitudinal congruence

Maria Sobolewska, Patrick English, Laura Morales, Marc van de Wardt, and Steven van Hauwaert
Mobilization, Counter-Mobilization and Access to Power: Does descriptive Representation follow the anti-immigration mood?

Peter Allen and Sarah Childs
Capturing critical actors: the benefits of structural topic modelling

Maria Sobolewska, Rosie Campbell and Rebecca McKee
Representation of minorities: how voters’ and candidates’ attitudes compare

(6.3)    Electoral behaviour

Alia Middleton
More than a vote on the government? The changing nature of by-elections in the UK political system

Roderick Kiewiet, R. Michael Alvarez and Lucas Nunez
Toward a Taxonomy of Protest Voting

Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley
Has there been a ‘Big Sort’ in recent US electoral geography?

(6.4)     Political communication

Florian Foos
Enabling Persuasion Experiments in Cash-Strapped Environments: Two Cluster-Randomized Experiments based on Canvassing Data

Lamprini Rori
Party organizations in the light of professionnalization of political communication : A comparative analysis among socialist parties in Europe

Ekaterina Kolpinskaya, Gabriel Katz, Susan Banducci, Travis Coan and Daniel Stevens
The effect of post-electoral communication frames on attitudes towards government: Evidence from a survey experiment after the 2015 British election

Sarah Tiplady
Changes to Campaign Strategy in US Presidential Elections.


18.45               Coaches to Canterbury Cathedral Lodge

19.00               Drinks reception and conference dinner

Speaker: Daniel Hannan, MEP

Canterbury Cathedral Lodge