WARNING: history shows that survival in micro-populations belies the inevitable, eventual crash to extinction for lions

Documented lion sightings since the middle ages across the Maghreb biome of the southern Mediterranean (light grey shading) north of the Sahara in North Africa (AD1500–1960). Open circles depict locations of general historical observations documented before 1800, adapted from [2]. Details can be sourced from [2, 8, 15]. Asterisks denote the locations of the various named major human population centres.

Lion sightings since the middle ages across the Maghreb biome (grey shading) of North Africa (AD1500–1960). Open circles depict locations of general historical observations documented before 1800. Details can be sourced from Lee et al (2015), Black et al (2013) and Yamaguchi and Haddane (2002). Asterisks denote locations of the major named human population centres.

This post does not predict the imminent demise of lions but it sends out a clear warning. Despite the 20-30,000 wild lions (mostly in Eastern and Southeastern Africa) let’s examine the circumstances of their survival very closely.

Lions are a relatively long lived species in the wild, so even if rarely-noticed may persist and be re-sighted on an occasional basis, even as individual animals. This appears to have been the case in some recorded sightings of individual lions near the Biskra in Algeria in the early 20th century for instance, with individual animals well-known to locals.

Micropopulations of the animals were identified by Guggisberg (1963) from historical accounts, but these had all disappeared by 1960. The small populations had persisted, but had not bred successfully. The next generation of animals simply failed to materialise.

When we hear of small populations being re-discovered in the Gabon or Ethiopia, we must take this reality into account.

Reading:

Black, S. A. Fellous, A. Yamaguchi, N. and Roberts, D. L. (2013) “Examining the extinction of the Barbary Lion and its implications for felid conservation,” PLoS ONE, vol. 8, no. 4, Article ID e60174.

Dybas C.L. (2016) African Lions on the brink: a conversation with lion expert Craig Packer. National Geographic http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/10/11/african-lions-on-the-brink-a-conversation-with-lion-expert-craig-packer/#.V_-y5k2J-to.twitter

Guggisberg, C. A. W. (1963) Simba: The Life of the Lion, Bailey Bros. & Swinfen Ltd, London, UK.

Lee, T. E. Black, S. A. Fellous, A. et al. (2015) “Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion,” PeerJ, vol. 3, article e1224, 2015.

Yamaguchi, N. and B. Haddane, B. (2002) “The North African Barbary lion and the Atlas lion project,” inInternational Zoo News, vol. 49, pp. 465–481, 2002

Importance of recent historical records of lions

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Lions have enjoyed significant protection in Gujarat’s Gir Forest in India. There are accounts of colonial and local hunters shooting animals outside the state in the late 19th century.

Lions are in severe decline across sub-Saharan Africa, most particularly in West and Central African countries. Even in Eastern or Southeastern Africa many populations are now isolated by geography or fences. The decline of the species across Africa is worryingly similar to the historical disappearances of lions from other regions.

Recent collation and analysis of historical records have given insight into the range of the Barbary lion in North Africa, providing important insights into how lion populations are in decline, the point at which they are most vulnerable to extinction and what the animals tend to do under extreme persecution.

For example, Black et al. (2013) confirm that the range of lions reached far further south into the Saharan Atlas of Algeria than was ever known, even in the mid 1800s when numbers were higher and lion hunting was common in the region. Individual animals appear to have ranged across a wide expanse of arid habitat. This mean that the populations across Algeria could be considered contiguous with populations in the high atlas of southern Morocco.

In India similar reports from 19th century colonial India include hunters taking lions in the Jahore and Marwar districts of Rajasthan in the 1870s, well north of their stronghold in the Gir forest, Gujarat state the last significant home of Asiatic lions over the past 100 years. In 1872 a professional hunter (Bhil Shikari) associated with a Mr. T. W. Miles brought in the skin of a full-grown Asiatic lioness which he had shot on the Anadra side of Mount Abu, the last met with in Sirohi districts. Around the same year a Colonel Hayland bagged four lions near Jaswantpura, in Marwar. These were apparently the last lions seen across the Kutch border into Rajasthan (Adams, 1899).

Lions are a long-lived species, so if isolated individuals range to less-threatened areas they are able to survive for prolonged periods, perhaps giving the impression of a population being maintained. This may not be a reality of persistence, but instead an indication of a single wandering, isolated individual as is suspected today in the recent lion sighting in Gabon.

From a conservation perspective, it is important to separate these exceptional ‘one-off’ sightings, from the true indicators of surviving micro-populations, the latter of which require careful systemic attention. For example, tiny populations of lions were thought to have survived in the remote Saharan Atlas mountains for decades after the species was considered extinct from North Africa (Guggisberg, 1963; Black, 2016). As for the exceptional one-off sightings – well they offer hope*; hope that a suitable habitat can be utilised for future lions population to find genuine refuge.

*Note: the recent unexpected sighting of a Spix Macaw in the wild, not seen in the area since the last known specimen disappeared in 2000 is a good example of an exception. No one believes the animal has been kept hidden for sixteen years – this individual it is most probably a recent captive release. However the learning point is – can this animal survive in the remaining habitat, does it display survival behaviours and would in situ conservation of the species be a viable proposition that can be taken forward seriously?

Reading:

Adams, A. (1899) The Western Rajputana States: A Medico-topographical and General Account of Marwar, Sirohi, Jaisalmir. https://books.google.com/books?pg=PA168&dq=%22marwar%22+lion+tiger&id=6ohCAAAAIAAJ&output=text

Black SA, Fellous A, Yamaguchi N, Roberts DL (2013) Examining the Extinction of the Barbary Lion and Its Implications for Felid Conservation. PLoS ONE 8(4): e60174.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060174

Black S.A. (2016) The Challenges of Exploring the Genetic Distinctiveness of the Barbary Lion and the Identification of Putative Descendants in Captivity, International Journal of Evolutionary Biology. vol. 2016, Article ID 6901892, 9 pages. doi:10.1155/2016/6901892

Guggisberg C.A.W. (1963) Simba: the life of the lion. London: Bailey Bros. and Swinfen

Saul H. (2016) Male lion filmed roaming in West African nation of Gabon for the first time in 20 years. The Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/male-lion-filmed-roaming-in-west-african-nation-of-gabon-for-first-time-in-20-years-10152290.html

Are the captive lions from the King of Morocco’s collection still relevant to lion conservation today?

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Moroccan lion, Port Lympne Reserve, UK. Can this animal offer something different for global lion conservation? (Photo: S Black)

The IUCN is looking to re-designate the taxonomy of lions, splitting them into two sub-species. Most lions in zoos are descended from East, North Eastern and Southern African lions, Panthera leo melanochaita, of which there are about 30,000 in the wild. Lions from India and West and Central Africa are a separate, highly endangered group of just 1500 individuals in the wild, Panthera leo leo (Bertola et al, 2016; Black 2016). Of the latter group perhaps 100 are kept in zoos, all originating from India.

Lions descended from animals held in the collection of the King of Morocco (and Sultans before) have been kept as a distinct group for decades. It is possible that today’s Moroccan lions are part of P. l. leo, the highly endangered group (Black 2016).

Moroccan lions number just under 100 captive animals – potential direct relatives of animals spread across the northern distribution – a vital breeding pool for future lion survival. Moroccan lions are still successful breeders in captivity.

Globally, lions have declined by about 90% in recent decades. Most of the 30,000 left are in Eastern and Southern Africa (Panthera leo melanochiata) . Of the few remaining in the ‘northern’ sub-species (Panthera leo leo ) populations can be counted as follows:

* India – 400 in the wild – 100 in captivity

* Middle East – extinct since the 1940s

* North Africa – extinct since the 1950s

* West Africa – about 250 in the wild

* Central Africa – about 800-1200 in the wild

There are few if any lions from West and Central Africa in zoos today and only 100 captive animals verified in the Indian lion studbook. If the 80 animals in the Moroccan Royal group (in Rabat zoo and in European zoos) are proven to be closely related, they will add significantly to the gene pool. The Moroccan animals in zoos may be the last chance to save the subspecies from disappearance in Africa.

Additionally, Morocco itself could become a wild safe harbour for reintroduction of animals, despite no lions being in the wild since the 1950s. This would also give a long term base from which to support lion recovery in West Africa, for example.

Whilst the IUCN revision of taxonomy puts a number of subspecies debates to bed, it also provides real clarity of the the threat to Panthera leo leo and its vulnerability in isolated pockets across west and central Africa and North-west India. It is staggering to consider that just a few hundreds of animals are spread across these vast areas of previous habitat.

The conservation landscape for lions has changed dramatically in the wild. Now the Moroccan Royal lion population has quite possibly become more important than ever.

Reading:

Bertola, L. D.,et al. (2016) Phylogeographic Patterns in Africa and High Resolution Delineation of Genetic Clades in the Lion (Panthera leo). Scientific Reports 6:30807. DOI: 10.1038/srep30807

New steps forward now possible for India’s lions?

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After decades of political debate, it is now possible that a small number of India’s lions will be translocated into the Kuno wildlife reserve. This offers a major opportunity to expand the population away from the high density situation currently apparent in the Gir forest in Gujarat (which is currently surrounded by highly populated rural landscape).

A translocation was prrevioulsy attempted in 1957 in Chandrprabha Sanctuary, Uttar Pradesh but failed due to lack of follow up, monitoring and management.

The Kuno Sanctuary itself was first surveyed in 1993-4 as part of an assessment of possible additional habitats for lions. It provides a chance to have a second wild population kept clear of the Gir population as an insurance against unforeseen threats, such as infectious disease.

Venkataraman (2010) suggests two ways of optimizing the natural dispersal of lions, either (i) adaptive population management within the satellite habitats by translocating and active management of the sub-poluations or (ii) facilitating the corridors for natural dispersal. A new population in Kuno would represent option 1. A future Kuno population would be mamnaged alongside existing sub-populations which have already dispered into areas outside the Gir forest including coastal areas to the south, Girnar Wildlife Sanctuary (WLS), and hill ranges extending from MitiyalaSavarkundla-Palitana-Shihor towards the Junagadh, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat.

The coming years will be an interesting time for active conservtion management of lions.

Reading:

Chellam, R., Joshua, J., Williams, C.A. & Johnsingh, A.J.T. (1995) Survey of Potential Sites for Reintroduction of Asiatic Lions. Unpublished Report, Wildlife Institute of India, Dehra Dun, India.

Divyabhanusinh, C. (2005) The Story of Asia’s Lions. Marg Publications, Mumbai, India.

Johnsingh, A.J.T. , Goyal, S.P. and Qureshi, Q. (2007) Preparations for the reintroduction of Asiatic lion Panthera leo persica into Kuno Wildlife Sanctuary, Madhya Pradesh, India. Oryx , 41(1), 93–96.

Venkataraman, M. (2010) ‘Site’ing the right reasons: critical evaluation of conservation planning for the Asiatic lion Meena. European Journal of Wildlife Research, 2010, Vol.56(2), pp.209-213

Leopards hang on in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq

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Leopard killed at Çınar, Diyarbakır-Turkey in 2013 (Avgan et al 2016)

The Persian Leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) is listed as “endangered” by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The bulk of the remaining population is in Iran, with the animal historically in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Dagestan and Armenia. The status of leopards in Iraq and south-eastern Turkey has been unclear for decades and there has been no evidence of a reproducing population reported outside Iran.

Recent decades have seen on-going armed conflicts in important parts of the potential leopard distribution range, particularly the Zagros Mountain range in Iraq and Turkey, so no studies have been conducted to prove the presence (or absence) of the species from that range. Militarised zones such as this can also offer opportunities for otherwise persecuted rare species to persist relatively unmolested by human activities and less affected by landscape use such as agriculture, pastoralism and resource off-take.

Avgan et al (2016) report 10 confirmed and 2 unconfirmed leopard records between 2001 and 2014 from northern Iraq and south-eastern Turkey – all were males, which could have been long-range dispersers from Iran (over 500km away). However, the long distances between these records and the nearest known breeding populations in Iran suggests to Avgan and colleagues that a so far unnoticed reproducing population may occur along the north-western part of the Zagros Mountains in western Iran, northern Iraq and south-eastern Turkey.

Reading:

Avgan, B., Raza, H., Barzani, M. & Breitenmoser, U. (2016) Do recent leopard Panthera pardus records from northern Iraq and south-eastern Turkey reveal an unknown population nucleus in the region?, Zoology in the Middle East, 62:2, 95-104, DOI: 10.1080/09397140.2016.1173904 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09397140.2016.1173904

Lions clinging on in the not-so-available wilderness

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The forest lion of Gabon, captured by a remote video camera. (Photo: Philipp Henschel/Panthera)

A lion population has been re-discovered in northwest Ethiopia in a game park adjacent to Sudan’s Dinder National Park.

A single lion has been seen in the Batéké Plateau National Park in the Congo – the first seen there for 20 years.

Isolated claims are made by people of seeing lions in Pakistan, bordering the areas of India around Gujarat. Within India itself lions have spread into surrounding sites in the State of Gujarat, outside the Gir forest.

Are lions in these disparate areas having a comeback – or is it landscape pressure that is forcing a few individuals to extend their range to find new territories?

Just as for the tiger, new monitoring technologies such as camera trapping are revealing new ranges for lions. This is not necessarily good news (lions may be dispersing to avoid other threats). In the case of Gabon however, the active work by government to reduce poaching has made habitats available again. This is good news and is a basis for making progress with lion conservation.

Reading:

Anon (2016)Lions rediscovered in Ethiopia’s Alatash game park. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35460573

The Forest Lion. Pacific Standard https://psmag.com/the-forest-lion-of-gabon-a221eb09e6a5#.yivsmfhr7

Saul H. (2016) Male lion filmed roaming in West African nation of Gabon for the first time in 20 years. THe Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/male-lion-filmed-roaming-in-west-african-nation-of-gabon-for-first-time-in-20-years-10152290.html

Other links:

https://www.facebook.com/pantheracats/videos/vb.194322848762/10152843883433763/?type=2&theater

Dwindling ecology of the Sahara: large animals in decline

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A view of the Sahara desert in Algeria – the last Algerian lions survived on the fringes of the Sahara into the 1940s with others surviving in northern coastal forests into the 1950s. (Photo by Florence Devouard)

The Bubal hartebeest is extinct, the dama gazelle and addax survive in only 1% of their former range, and various other hoofed animals from the region are extremely threatened: the Nubian Ibex clings on in parts of Algeria whilst the Barbary sheep fares a little better.

Of the major predators, the Barbary Lion has certainly been extinct in the wild for 50-60 years (assuming some of its ancestors still survive in a handful of zoos). The African wild dog no longer inhabits the Sahara desert (and was only present in southern fringes. The Saharan cheetah only inhabits 10 per cent of its former range, surviving largely unnoticed in southern Algeria. Similarly a small leopard population is known to survive in the southern Algerian Sahara, but is lost from 97 percent its historic range.

However there are opportunities for recovery: the scimitar horned oryx is extinct in the wild, but controlled releases in fenced reserves in Tunisia and Chad are looking to re-establish the wild population. Similarly the Addax has been reintroduced in fenced reserves in Morocco and Tunisia. The leopard was thought extinct in the late 1990s, but a small population appears to survive in the Atlas Mountains. Do these examples of experimental reintroductions and relic populations offer hope for wider recovery of North African and Saharan ecosystems?

Reading:

Anon (2013) Sahara Desert’s large mammals Slipping Into Extinction. Environmental News Service. December 5, 2013 http://ens-newswire.com/2013/12/05/sahara-deserts-large-mammals-slipping-into-extinction/

Busby et al (2009) Genetic analysis of scat reveals leopard (Panthera pardus) and cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) in Algeria. Oryx, 43(3), 412–415

Wildlife Conservation Society. “Critically Endangered Cheetahs In Algeria Snapped With Camera Trap.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 27 February 2009. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090227082603.htm>.

Could lions solve a secondary predator issue in North Africa?

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Feral dogs photographed by A. Woodhouse http://africageographic.com/blog/feral-dogs-imfolozi/

The concept of secondary predator effects on degraded ecosystems is well established. If the large carnivores at the top of the ‘food chain’ are eliminated, then species lower down the pecking order are given a free reign to devastate prey species or the vegetation, if they are grazers (Borrvall and Ebenman, 2006; Duffy, 2002). By inference the presence of primary predators controls the trophic levels below them in the ecosystem.

Whilst large carnivores are necessarily rare, from a trophic, or food energy transfer, perspective (Colinvaux, 1990), they appear to have an amplified impact on the behaviour and presence of other species can be a significant moderating effect in ecosystems. A recent study identified that even perceived presence of large carnivores reduces the feeding routines and impact of secondary predators in particular in experiments with racoons (Suraci et al 2016).

Do these observations and phenomena relate in any way to the pressures on ecosystems in North Africa? Clearly, land use by mixed flocks of goats and sheep would be changed (to some extent) by the presence of large carnivores, although how this would affect long term landscape recovery is unclear (without some system to manage those flocks). There also is a suspicion that some Barbary macaque populations are be impacted by predation from feral dogs, particularly causing losses in infant monkeys.

Could lions provide an opportunity to deter overgrazing or the presence of feral dogs in those habitats of Barbary macaques?

Further Reading:

Borrvall, C. and Ebenman, B. (2006) Early onset of secondary extinctions in ecological communities following the loss of top predators. Ecology Letters, 9, 435–42

Butynski, T.M., Cortes, J., Waters, S., Fa, J., Hobbelink, M.E., van Lavieren, E., Belbachir, F., Cuzin, F., de Smet, K., Mouna, M., de Iongh, H., Menard, N. & Camperio-Ciani, A. (2008) Macaca sylvanus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008: e.T12561A3359140. http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2008.RLTS.T12561A3359140.en. Downloaded on 26 February 2016.

Colinvaux, P. (1990) Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare. Penguin Books.

Duffy, J.E. (2003) Biodiversity loss, trophic skew and ecosystem functioning. Ecology Letters, 6: 680–687 doi: 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00494.x

Suraci, J.P., Clinchy M., Dill, L.M., Roberts, D. and Zanette L.Y (2016) Fear of large carnivores causes a trophic cascade. Nature Communications, 7, 10698 doi:10.1038/ncomms10698 http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160223/ncomms10698/full/ncomms10698.html

Woodhouse, A. (2014) Feral dogs at iMfolozi. Africageographic, Posted: April 30, 2014 http://africageographic.com/blog/feral-dogs-imfolozi/

A new angle on modern lions’ backstory

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Modern lions (Panthera leo) began their exodus out of North Africa towards the end of the Pleistocene, eventually reaching as far as India. Much later, just around 5,000 years ago, another group of lions left the continent, reaching what is today Iran, in the Middle East, forming populations which are now extinct. This understanding of movement in prehistory may have important implications for the conservation of modern lions, since the study by Barnett et al. (2014) identifies that lion populations in West Africa and Central Africa, which have drastically declined over the past few decades, are actually more closely related to the Indian lion than to the more numerous populations of lions in East Africa (for example lions in Somalia or Botswana).

Today in India fewer than 400 Asian lions (P. leo persica) survive in the wild, living on the Kathiawar Peninsula in Gujarat, and this subspecies is listed as ‘Endangered’ by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Despite the large geographical distances between them, these lions also seem closely related to the Barbary lions of North Africa. Could a conservation plan involving Indian lions be part of the answer for recovery of North African populations – and could North Africa itself be a potential refuge for the Asiatic lion?

Further Reading:

Barnett, R. et al (2014) Revealing the maternal demographic history of Panthera leo using ancient DNA and a spatially explicit genealogical analysis. BMC Evolutionary Biology 14:70 doi:10.1186/1471-2148-14-70

Walker, M. (2014) Modern lions’ origin revealed by genetic analysis. BBC Nature 2 April 2014. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/26736688

Lions in Pakistan or on the shores of the Arabian sea?

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Lions survived in the territories of Pakistan up until the mid 1800s, the last of them believed to be killed in 1842 near Kot Diji in Sindh, so its presence there is essentially ancient history.

However there have been recent rumours of lions being spotted in a national park of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, with observers suggesting that these are animals migrating from India. However the lion stronghold of Gujarat in India (particularly the Gir Forest and the Arabian coastal strip) are hundreds of miles south. These unusual sightings may relate to mis-identification of other animals (such as leopards) or, more speculatively, released animals from clandestine captive collections (the latter has been suggested for leopard sightings in Mediterranean western Turkey in the late 20th Century).

On the rocks in a Gujarat port – ready to take a swim. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7D6G-AhSts

There have been incidents of illegal trade in live African lions into Pakistan in the recent past; how do you get rid of illegal lions? Could that be part of the explanation? In addition of course there are a number of zoos in Pakistan which have captive Asiatic lions (Panthera leo persica) in their animal collections, although these rare specimens would most likely be kept properly secure. Nevertheless the fact that lions are present in the peninsular of north-western India raises some interesting sightings. Animals from the Gir forest (landlocked by extensive tracts of agricultural land) sometimes have to disperse.

By moving across agricultural landscapes and areas of human habitation a small but significant number end up living adjacent to industrial sites, within small coastal forest scrub lands and adjacent to busy ports. The spectacle of a lion walking along a beach or being seen swimming in the sea is, despite its apparently improbability, a matter of fact.

Reading:

Anon (2016) Lion spotted in Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast, rescued. Pakistan Telegraph (ANI) Sunday 3rd January 2016 http://www.pakistantelegraph.com/index.php/sid/239929847

Anon (2010) Four lions Imported illegally to Karachi. BBC News South East Asia http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12074775

Khan, H.N. and Craig, T. (2015) In North-west Pakistan big cats are more feared than global terrorists, The Guardian Weekly/Washington Post 19th September 2015.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/19/pakistan-man-eating-leopards-abbottabad

Mulki ,M.A. (2012)A Walk on the Wild Side. The Express Tribune, Sunday Magazine, January 29^th. http://tribune.com.pk/story/326966/a-walk-on-the-wild-side/

Naqaush, T. (2014) Asiatic lion spotted in AJK national park, DAWN Febraury 5th http://www.dawn.com/news/1085010/asiatic-lion-spotted-in-ajk-national-park