As the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in the UK, Dr Lindsay Forbes, Senior Clinical Research Fellow (Public Health) at Kent\u2019s Centre for Health Services Studies,\u00a0has commented on\u00a0how this could impact the UK health and social care system. She said:<\/p>\n
\u2018The key issues with COVID-19 seem to be that\u00a0it is highly infectious \u2013 more so than seasonal flu<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 and we have limited natural immunity with no vaccine yet. Many people could get it \u2013 if so, there may be\u00a0major disruption to our health and social care system<\/strong>, which is already bogged down with the usual winter problems:\u00a0high levels of emergency medical admissions and seasonal flu<\/strong>. Many health and social care workers will get COVID-19 too and will have to isolate themselves.<\/p>\n \u2018In the UK\u00a0we have extensive plans for dealing with major outbreaks of infectious disease<\/strong>. These were found to be robust during the swine flu epidemic, which caused about 26,000 additional hospital admissions. The country is covered by a network of Local Health Resilience Partnerships \u2013 collaborations of local government and health organisations that set out emergency preparedness plans.\u00a0Yet, the health and social care system is in a more vulnerable state than in 2009\/10<\/strong>, weakened by a long-term funding deficit, difficulties in recruitment and low morale.<\/p>\n \u2018We need to be prepared for disruption<\/strong>: delays to non-urgent investigations or operations and longer waiting times for appointments with GPs and hospitals, and maybe effects on urgent care for other conditions.\u00a0There are a lot of uncertainties<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 not least about how long the COVID-19 outbreak will last. Seasonal flu fizzles out each year as the weather gets warmer \u2013\u00a0whether COVID-19 will do the same remains to be seen<\/strong>.\u2019<\/p>\n Dr Lindsay Forbes is Senior Clinical Research Fellow (Public Health) at the University of Kent\u2019s Centre for Health Services Studies. She is an academic public health physician with special interests in the epidemiology of long term conditions and the design and evaluation of services to meet the needs of the growing population who have these. Her main focus is currently the organisation of general practice. Dr Forbes joined the Centre for Health Services Studies in January 2016 from King\u2019s College London and Queen Mary, University of London.<\/em><\/p>\n The University\u2019s Press Office provides the media with\u00a0expert comments<\/a>\u00a0in response to topical news events. Colleagues who would like to learn more about how to contribute their expertise or how the service works should contact the Press Office on 3985 or\u00a0pressoffice@kent.ac.uk<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"