Integrated modelling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales<\/b><\/a><\/p>\nin Ecological Modelling.<\/p>\n
Abstract:<\/p>\n
Population size of species with birth-pulse life-cycles varies both within and between seasons, but most population dynamics models assume that a population can be characterised adequately by a single number within a season. However, within-season dynamics can sometimes be too substantial to be ignored when modelling dynamics between seasons. Typical examples are insect populations or migratory animals. Numerous models for only between-season dynamics exist, but very few have combined dynamics at both temporal scales.<\/p>\n
In a new approach, we extend appreciably the models of Dennis et al. (2016b): we show how to adapt them for a generation time\u00a0 year and fit an integrated population model for multiple data types, by maximising a joint likelihood for population counts of unmarked individuals and capture\u2013recapture data from a study with marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using annual monitoring data for the endangered flightless beetle\u00a0Iberodorcadion fuliginator<\/i>\u00a0from 18 populations in the Upper Rhine Valley for 1998\u20132016, with a 2-year life cycle. Standard likelihood methods are used for model fitting and comparison, and a concentrated (profile) likelihood approach provides computational efficiency.<\/p>\n
Additional information from the capture\u2013recapture data makes the population model more robust and, importantly, enables true, rather than relative, abundance to be estimated. A dynamic stopover model provides estimates of both survival and phenology parameters within a season, and also of productivity between seasons. For\u00a0\u00a0I. fuliginator<\/i>, we demonstrate a population decline since 1998 and how this links with productivity, which is affected by temperature. A delayed mean emergence date in recent years is also shown.<\/p>\n
A main point of interest is the focus on the two temporal scales at which perhaps most animal populations vary: in the short-term, a population is seldom truly closed within a single season, and in the long-term (between seasons) it never is. Hence our models may serve as a template for a general description of population dynamics in many species. This includes rare species with limited data sets, for which there is a general lack of population dynamic models, yet conservation actions may greatly benefit from this kind of models.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Emily and Byron, along with Marc Kery, Armin Coray, Michael Schaub and Bruno Baur have published the paper: Integrated modelling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales in Ecological Modelling. Abstract: Population size of species with birth-pulse life-cycles varies both within and between seasons, but most population dynamics models assume that a population can […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40695,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/923"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40695"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=923"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":926,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/923\/revisions\/926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/seak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}