\n
The Annals of Applied Statistics
\n2016, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1572\u20131589
\nDOI: 10.1214\/16-AOAS949
\n\u00a9 Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016<\/p>\n
\n
OPEN MODELS FOR REMOVAL DATA<\/p>\n
\nBY ELENI MATECHOU, RACHEL S. MCCREA1, BYRON J. T. MORGAN,
\nDARRYN J. NASH AND RICHARD A. GRIFFITHS<\/p>\n
\nUniversity of Kent<\/p>\n
\nIndividuals of protected species, such as amphibians and reptiles, often
\nneed to be removed from sites before development commences. Usually, the
\npopulation is considered to be closed. All individuals are assumed to (i) be
\npresent and available for detection at the start of the study period and (ii) remain
\nat the site until the end of the study, unless they are detected. However,
\nthe assumption of population closure is not always valid. We present
\nnew removal models which allow for population renewal through birth and\/or
\nimmigration, and population depletion through sampling as well as through
\ndeath\/emigration. When appropriate, productivity may be estimated and a
\nBayesian approach allows the estimation of the probability of total population
\ndepletion. We demonstrate the performance of the models using data on
\ncommon lizards, Zootoca vivipara, and great crested newts, Triturus cristatus.<\/p>\n
\n