{"id":1330,"date":"2018-01-11T11:32:53","date_gmt":"2018-01-11T11:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/?p=1330"},"modified":"2018-07-03T15:44:03","modified_gmt":"2018-07-03T14:44:03","slug":"could-we-have-predicted-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/2018\/01\/11\/could-we-have-predicted-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"Could we have predicted Brexit?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Was Theresa May right to go for \u2018strong and stable\u2019 at the last general election? Although that strategy has been the subject of criticism, research conducted by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/people\/abramsd\/\">Professor Dominic Abrams<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/people\/travaglinog\/\">Dr Giovanni Travaglino<\/a> suggests that these themes might have appealed particularly to those who voted to leave the EU, as described in their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britac.ac.uk\/blog\/could-we-have-predicted-brexit\">British Academy blog<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The research just published in the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/journal\/10.1111\/(ISSN)2044-8309\"><em>British Journal of Social Psychology<\/em><\/a>\u00a0reports evidence from political opinion surveys conducted just before the EU referendum, with samples of 1000 eligible voters from Kent and 1000 from Scotland. It examined the way that respondents\u2019 views predicted their voting intentions in the referendum.<\/p>\n<p>Different explanations have been given for why people voted for Brexit. One explanation suggests that support for Brexit reflected a general rise in xenophobia and prejudice, perhaps fuelled by a populist agenda. Another explanation is that it reflected people\u2019s distrust and rejection of the political establishment. Professor Abrams and Dr Travaglino proposed an \u2018aversion amplification hypothesis\u2019 whereby the combination of these two components was particularly influential. They reasoned that when people\u2019s concern about levels of immigration was combined with feeling distrustful of politicians, this would lead to a heightened sense of threat from immigration, and disidentification with Europe. A vote for Brexit reflected a rejection of the political status-quo and a desire for a more predictable future.<\/p>\n<p>To read the full story please go to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britac.ac.uk\/blog\/could-we-have-predicted-brexit\">https:\/\/www.britac.ac.uk\/blog\/could-we-have-predicted-brexit<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For more on this research see our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/research\/political-and-social-change\/index.html\">Political and Social Change<\/a> page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Was Theresa May right to go for \u2018strong and stable\u2019 at the last general election? Although that strategy has been the subject of criticism, research &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/2018\/01\/11\/could-we-have-predicted-brexit\/\">Read&nbsp;more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14802,"featured_media":1458,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[140626,3684,1029,140638,70],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1330"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14802"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1330"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1330\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1543,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1330\/revisions\/1543"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/psychology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}