The School of Politics and International Relations’ Professor Richard Whitman has commented on the current political turmoil in the UK by saying that the EU will need clarity about what the UK wants in these unprecedented times as \u2018without the Withdrawal Agreement in place the UK leaves the EU. This is the real Brexit backstop.\u2019<\/p>\n
He continues: \u2018Attention has, rightly, centred on\u00a0the Government\u2019s problems in Parliament<\/strong>. And even the most experienced commentators\u00a0cannot confidently predict<\/strong>\u00a0the direction for the UK\u2019s politics in the next fortnight. Will there be a new Prime Minister, a new Government or will a General Election be called?<\/p>\n \u2018The\u00a0domestic political turmoil<\/strong>\u00a0is, however, moving more and more\u00a0out of step with the timetable for the UK\u2019s departure from the EU<\/strong>. Under the terms of Article 50 the UK will leave the EU on 29th<\/sup>March whether the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the UK Parliament or not.<\/p>\n \u2018Without the Withdrawal Agreement in place\u00a0the UK leaves the EU<\/strong>. This is the\u00a0real\u00a0<\/u>Brexit backstop. And predictions about the impact on the UK\u2019s economy, politics and society are no more than guesses as there is\u00a0no precedent in recent history for a country entering into such a condition of legal and economic uncertainty<\/strong>. It would be\u00a0an unprecedented act of recklessness by a democratic government<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \u2018More negotiations with the EU, whether to re-negotiate on the Withdrawal Agreement or to replace it with an alternative agreement\u00a0will need more negotiating time.<\/strong>\u00a0And to provide that time there would be the need to extend the period of negotiations. This could be done either by the UK\u00a0withdrawing its intention to leave<\/strong>\u00a0the EU (but there does not appear to be a Parliamentary majority for this course of action) or\u00a0extending the period of negotiations<\/strong>\u00a0with the EU by asking for an extension to the negotiating period (allowed for under Article 50).<\/p>\n \u2018To do this a British Government would need to be\u00a0clear with the EU on three questions<\/strong>: What is the purpose of extended negotiations? How long it requires for the negotiations? How it would conduct itself as a country that would, legally and practically, remain a member of the EU for the period of extended negotiations?<\/p>\n \u2018Answering these questions whilst\u00a0in the middle of an evolving UK domestic political crisis<\/strong>\u00a0looks to be a tall order. But as the prospect of a no deal Brexit looms ever closer\u00a0they will become more pressing.<\/strong>\u2018<\/p>\n Professor Richard Whitman<\/a>, is a Professor of Politics and International Relations in the\u00a0School of Politics and International Relations<\/a>\u00a0(POLIR). He is also a Visiting Fellow at\u00a0Chatham House<\/a>, and an Academic Fellow at the\u00a0European Policy Centre<\/a>. His current research interests include the\u00a0external relations and foreign and security and defence policies of the EU<\/strong>, and the governance and future priorities of the EU.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"