{"id":1211,"date":"2018-11-14T12:08:02","date_gmt":"2018-11-14T12:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/?p=1211"},"modified":"2018-11-14T12:08:02","modified_gmt":"2018-11-14T12:08:02","slug":"professor-feargal-cochrane-provides-expert-comment-on-irish-border-brexit-negotiations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/2018\/11\/14\/professor-feargal-cochrane-provides-expert-comment-on-irish-border-brexit-negotiations\/","title":{"rendered":"Professor Feargal Cochrane provides expert comment on Irish border Brexit negotiations"},"content":{"rendered":"

As negotiators appear to have failed to achieve a breakthrough on the Irish border in the Brexit negotiations, Professor Feargal Cochrane, Professor of International Conflict Analysis at Kent’s School of Politics and International Relations<\/a>, says that \u2018no backstop, no deal and no transition period could have potentially vast political and economic implications for Ireland, the UK, Northern Ireland and the EU.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2018Most of the energy as we reach the end point of the negotiations seems to be going into developing\u00a0a form of \u2018constructive ambiguity\u2019 over the phrasing of the eventual Withdrawal Agreement<\/strong>. This has been a feature of British diplomatic statecraft for some time and essentially requires drafting of\u00a0text that can be read in different ways to allow progress to be made<\/strong>, without absolute certainty over the ultimate destination.<\/p>\n

\u2018However, this is going to be\u00a0tricky to engineer<\/strong>\u00a0in the Brexit context, as the negotiations have\u00a0sucked trust out of the process<\/strong>\u00a0to the point that nearly all sides want\u00a0legal clarity<\/strong>\u00a0now, rather than ambiguity.<\/p>\n

\u2018Theresa May has\u00a0a choice between three options<\/strong>. She can agree to full regulatory alignment within Ireland \u2013 with the result being\u00a0some form of border controls in the Irish Sea.<\/strong>\u00a0Her second option is a mechanism that would\u00a0align the whole of the UK with the Customs Union<\/strong>, effectively dragging GB back in, when the UK formally leaves the EU in March 2019.<\/p>\n

\u2018Both of these two options are versions of what is\u00a0popularly known as \u2018the backstop\u2019<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u2018The third option is to have\u00a0no backstop, no deal and no transition period<\/strong>. This would be an interesting position for everyone, as much would depend then on how that would be operationalised by all sides. But its political and economic implications for Ireland, the UK, Northern Ireland and the EU would be\u00a0potentially vast.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018The reality of the options on the table is causing the government to leak oil now at a considerable rate, losing Transport Secretary Jo Johnston at the end of last week, and\u00a0enraging the DUP<\/strong>\u00a0with the suggestion that a border in the Irish Sea might be written into the Withdrawal Agreement after all, having previously said that this\u00a0wouldn\u2019t be countenanced<\/strong>\u00a0by the British government.<\/p>\n

\u2018It now seems that Theresa May is suggesting that this option might be written into the Withdrawal Agreement\u00a0by the EU<\/em>, even though it\u00a0remains unacceptable to her<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 a distinction that is clearly of\u00a0little reassurance<\/strong>\u00a0to the DUP.\u00a0 One of the reasons is that they know their history \u2013 as does everyone in Ireland and the historical parallels are becoming ever more clear.<\/p>\n

\u2018She may conclude that\u00a0her best chance of getting a Brexit deal through parliament<\/strong>is by opting for\/conceding to backstop option number one, with border controls in the Irish Sea \u2013 rather than dragging Team GB back into the Customs Union and enraging more Brexiteers in her party. Either way, the outcome is likely to be\u00a0politically difficult\u00a0<\/strong>for the government with the DUP and\/or Brexiteers in her party\u00a0crying foul<\/strong>.\u2019<\/p>\n

\n

Professor Feargal Cochrane<\/a>\u00a0is vice chair of the\u00a0Political Studies Association<\/a>\u00a0and Professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He is director of the\u00a0Conflict Analysis Research Centre<\/a>\u00a0and deputy head of the\u00a0School of Politics and International Relations<\/a>\u00a0at Kent. His current research is examining\u00a0the impact of Brexit on the peace process<\/strong>\u00a0in Northern Ireland and its devolved institutions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As negotiators appear to have failed to achieve a breakthrough on the Irish border in the Brexit negotiations, Professor Feargal Cochrane, Professor of International Conflict … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39550,"featured_media":1212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[131000],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1211"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39550"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1211"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1213,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1211\/revisions\/1213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.kent.ac.uk\/polir-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}