Dr Kathy Kotiadis, Reader in Operational Research at Kent Business School explains how simulation modelling may be the key to solving future Covid-19 problems. <\/p>\n
\u2018Virtual environments\u00a0developed by computer simulation modellers may hold the\u00a0key to solving\u00a0many of the Covid-19 problems emerging over the\u00a0next few months and years. With lockdown in place and newfound time on our hands, many of us have immersed ourselves in virtual environments for entertainment. These virtual environments mimic imaginary and real situations.<\/p>\n
\u2018The possibility of a pandemic was one such imaginary situation for many this time last year. This is now a reality and one that we expect to be dealing with for further months, if not years. Modellers, however, have developed computer simulations, via inputting of available data, to explore pandemics\u2019 possibilities and consequences and these have been used by affected countries to make crucial operational decisions.<\/p>\n
\u2018These computer simulation models often involve animation similar to the computer games many of us have experienced. Decision-makers, with the support of modellers, can engage with these models and consider their decisions. For example, some of these models can answer questions for Covid-19 decisions such as: \u201cHow many beds, NHS staff and PPE do we need in a specific area?\u201d. Using the data provided to it, the simulation will then run a virtual scenario which can be observed by decision-makers who will make judgements according to the simulation\u2019s outcomes.<\/p>\n
\u2018The benefit of these computer models is that you can\u00a0explore endless potential scenarios\u00a0and find solutions in the safety of a virtual world, entirely\u00a0away from harm. Experts can explore how to best\u00a0utilise vital and scarce equipment\u00a0such as ventilators and the impact of an increase in their demand.<\/p>\n
\u2018My latest paper, published in the\u00a0Journal of Simulation<\/a>, identifies challenges resulting from the\u00a0COVID-19 pandemic\u00a0and discusses how simulation modelling could help to support decision-makers in making the most informed decisions. The article explains that preparing for future pandemics will require\u00a0virtual Bletchley Park environments\u00a0and increased capacity in modellers.\u00a0Universities will play their part\u00a0in creating these.\u2019<\/p>\n Find the full paper and explanation online<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"