On Saturday 5th October, we gathered experts to speak on the upcoming US election: Trump V Harris.
Dr Nadine Ansorg, Reader in International Conflict Analysis, chaired our panel where our experts kicked things off with their passionate takes on the impending 2024 US Election results. They zeroed in on their individual areas of expertise, and you could feel the energy in the room as they shared their unique perspectives.
Sharing his expertise on US foreign policy, international political economy, and terrorism and political violence, Dr Rubrick Biegon noted that although Harris has a small lead, Trump is great at speaking to his supporters.
“I think trump will win, but I’d be happy to be wrong”
Dr Rubrick Biegon – Lecturer in International Relations
Biegon said that Trump will be constrained by the establishment, and that Trump’s inner circle will have a better idea of what’s happening than he will. Biegon also posed the question what will the second trump term look like? Will it be a re-run of his first term, or a consecutive second term?
Next, Senior Lecturer in American Politics Dr Andrew Wroe shared his takes. Dr Wroe said that Trump was constrained in his first term by the grown-ups in the White House, but most of these have long since left Trump’s Republican Party.
“I’m fearful of what a Trump presidency will look like, but more fearful of what’ll happen if he loses.”
Dr Andrew Wroe – Senior Lecturer in American Politics
It is widely theorised that Trump will not accept the result as valid, if he were to lose. Wroe said that Trump is preparing his supporters to reject the result – he may try to convince the Courts to throw out Harris votes and trigger discourse of a rigged election.
Wroe also wondered aloud if there ever was a rational side to trump: “his incompetence constrained his ability to get things done” (regarding Trump’s first term). Trump had some rational people around him, but Wroe speculated that the rational, ordinary Republicans have gone.
“The next Trump presidency wont be ordinary, I don’t think. How far is he prepared to go, if he loses?”
Dr Andrew Wroe
Sharing some hope, Senior Lecturer in Economics Dr Amanda Gosling shed light on America’s financial situation. Gosling said: “there is some hope, because the context of all of this is that America has actually had very strong economic performance. It kind of grew faster than Europe, particularly the country’s recovery after COVID has been much more dramatic than Europe’s recovery.”
Gosling also said that America has seen increased wages/income growth, decrease in economic inequality, and a decrease in the rate of an aging population. However, the world’s leading economists have said that inflation is expected to increase if Trump wins this election.
“If Harris wins, she will win in a divided world.”
Dr Amanda Gosling – Senior Lecturer in Economics
Lastly, we had Cassie Metcalf joining the panel in sharing a unique perspective. Cassie is a Politics student here at Kent, and is undergoing a democracy volunteers’ deployment for election observation – meaning that she needed to remain impartial on the panel.
Cassie spoke of the perception of electoral fraud – it is widespread and has the potential to cause much instability. Regarding the impending results of this election, Cassie said:
“The peaceful transfer of power is put into question.”
Cassie Metcalf – Politics and International Relations Student
Each side (Democrats V Republicans) has a different idea of fraud, and conspiracies are rapidly consuming the nation.
Enlightening us with the student angle, Cassie’s research found that students’ highest concerns for this election are: the war in Palestine, the economy/housing/civil rights, and confidence in the system.
To round-off our panel event, Nadine then threw it over to the audience for questions for the panel. The topic of nuclear war was discussed, with Dr Andrew Wroe stating that:
“The threat of nuclear war is widespread, no matter who’s in the White House seat.”
In conclusion, our panel offered thought-provoking and passionate insights into the potential outcomes and impacts of the impending 2024 US Election. Despite the differing viewpoints and predictions, one thing was clear: the potential consequences of the election outcome, regardless of the winner, could have significant and long-lasting effects on America and the world.
As Cassie Metcalf noted, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the peaceful transfer of power and the integrity of the electoral process. The panel left us with much to consider as we navigate the upcoming election and its consequences on the global stage – but what do you think?